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希臘5日公投決定是否接受新的國際紓困條件,究竟結果揭曉後會發生何種狀況?國際債權方將如何回應?希臘政府又有哪些因應的選項?以下是希臘債務危機接下來可能出現的發展走向:
1、假設公投接受紓困條件。由於現任總理齊普拉斯領導的左翼政府訴求選民投反對票,此結果可視為選民拒高雄托福補習班絕授權其繼續執政。
假如希臘政府因而垮台,可能會出現兩種情況,一是籌組全國團結政府,但保守派反對陣營與齊普拉斯的「激進左派聯盟」立場南轅北轍,組織大聯合政府恐窒礙難行。另一可行之道是提前改選國會,但最快也要等上30天,而且結果殊難預料。
不確定的狀態推延越久,對於金融體系流動性不足、實施資本管制、限制歐元每日提領金額的希臘只會更加不利。況且齊普拉斯也有可能再度贏得政權。
新的救助希臘包裹方案相關談判可能迅速啟動,不過債權方三巨頭國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)、歐盟及歐洲央行仍不同調,IMF表明唯有為希臘實質減記債務,才會參與三度對希臘紓困案。而歐盟則堅持,希臘必須先推行改革,才能減記債務。
2、假設公投拒絕紓困條件。齊普拉斯認為這將成為他在後續談判的有利籌碼,但問題在於債權方是否願意重啟談判。歐盟執委會主席容克曾說,希臘公投若否決紓困條件,等同於「向歐洲說不」。而歐洲央行屆時也難再續提供「緊急流動性援助」給希臘,一旦抽走這條救命索,希臘金融體系可能崩解。
不過法國與義大利領導人則表示,即使希臘公投拒絕紓困條件,他們仍有意再與雅典當局談。立場較強硬的德國也表明,即使希臘公投說不,依然可以留在歐元區。畢竟若任由希臘退出歐元區,已借貸給希臘的巨額款項將無望收回。
若迫不得已,希臘當局可能發行與歐元暫時併行的國幣,藉由資本重整試圖救銀行。希國政府也可能以此方式來支付公務員薪資。但國幣的購買力可能迅速下降,經濟將面臨高通膨風險,會有更多希臘人陷入貧困處境。即使希臘不主動放棄歐元,上述的發展其實也無異於退出歐元區。
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Greece's Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, center, speaks to the media after voting at a polling station in Athens, Sunday, July 5, 2015. Greeks began voting early Sunday in a closely-watched, ... 較多Greece's Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, center, speaks to the media after voting at a polling station in Athens, Sunday, July 5, 2015. Greeks began voting early Sunday in a closely-watched, closely-contested referendum, which the government pits as a choice over whether to defy the country's creditors and push for better repayment terms or essentially accept their terms, but which the opposition and many of the creditors paint as a choice between staying in the euro or leaving it. (AP Photo/Spyros Tsakiris) 較少
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Associated Press | 拍攝者 Spyros Tsakiris
2015年7月5日週日 台北標準時間下午4時09分
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